The Suffragist Peace. Forthcoming with Oxford University Press, with Robert Trager.
The Consequences of Humiliation: Anger and Status in World Politics.
Cornell University Press (2020).
"The Consequences of Defeat: The Quest for Status and Morale Following Military Failure,” Journal of Conflict Resolution (January 2021).
"Women's Suffrage and the Democratic Peace," Barnhart, Joslyn, Robert F. Trager, Elizabeth Saunders and Allan Dafoe. Foreign Affairs, (August 2020).
"Status Competition and Territorial Aggression: Evidence from the Scramble for Africa,” Security Studies, 25 No. 3 (September 2016).
Selected Works in Progress:
Governance of Emerging Technologies:
"The Dynamics of Prestige Races: What the Space Race Means for the Future of Technological Development."
The study of arms races has focused on security motivations. But international races may also be motivated by prestige. This paper defines a ``prestige race" and outlines the significant ways in which such races differ from races for security. The paper illustrates the dynamics of prestige races within the cases of the Cold War Space Race and the burgeoning space race of today. The paper describes implications for the development of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence.
"Gender, Innovation and Risk."
Women are, on average, more risk averse than men. They also tend to maintain more skeptical attitudes about emerging technologies than men, including GMOs and other biotechnologies. This article argues that including more women within decision making about AI development should generate more cautious and safer AI outcomes.
Gender and War:
"Breaking Down the Gender Gap: When Are Women Most Likely to Support Violence?"
The finding that women are, on average, less supportive of the use of force than men has been labelled one of the most consistent findings in public opinion polling. But women are not pacifists. This paper examines the conditions under which the gender gap disappears using survey experiments conducted within the United States and Israel.
"How Do Women Vote: Legislative Votes for the Use of Force in the US, Britain and Canada," with Andrew Bertoli and Robert Trager.
Prior work shows that the percentage of women in legislatures negatively correlates with conflict. This does not mean, however, that a lower likelihood to authorize force among women legislators is responsible for this pattern. Individual-level data enables us to confirm that this correlation does in fact result from gendered voting patterns.
Status, Nationalism and Identity:
"The Institutionalization of Status: When Do Status Concerns Promote Cooperation?"
Research on international status has focused almost exclusively on the relationship between status concerns and competitive strategies. But status can be gained through cooperation and can be recognized within international institutional contexts. This paper examines the conditions under which states pursue cooperative paths to status through membership in and leadership of international organizations. The paper also considers how status concerns might be ameliorated through the strategies of other states aimed at providing them a voice within international fora.
"Inciting Nationalism: The Domestic and International Context of Status Rhetoric," with J. Ko.
Past scholarship suggests that leaders engage in rhetoric intended to arouse nationalist sentiment for diversionary purposes. This paper assesses the validity of this explanation using data from China's People's Daily over the period 1946 to 2011. We find that elites are more likely to employ references to past national humiliations when they seek to divert the domestic populace, but also that they are more likely to do so once they have restored some degree of national confidence.
"The Reluctant Imperialists: The Evolution of Status Symbols and the Dynamics of Status Seeking."
Why are certain goods symbols of international status at some times but not at others? Status symbols evolve over time with attitudes change about what constitutes admirable characteristics. This paper examines when particular achievements become salient symbols of international status, using the case of imperialism at the end of the 19th century as evidence.
"When Does Public Opinion Matter?: The Politicization of Foreign Policy Issues in US Electoral Cycles."
When is public opinion most likely to affect foreign policy? Answers have tended toward extremes: either always or never. This paper explains how public opinion shapes policy through the electoral incentives of opposition candidates to politicize foreign policy issues and how public opinion can affect elections and policy even when the candidates' foreign policy platforms do not differ. The paper concludes that effects of public opinion on US foreign policy have been underestimated.